15
Cats Return Home for Post Final Exam Game

The first semester of the 2009-10 school calendar is finished. Students at the University have taken their final exams during the past week, and during this week each season, the UK basketball team does not play until the Saturday after the last final is done. However, in a very real sense, the UK Mens Basketball team took its final exam during the week of December 5 – 12 when it played North Carolina, Connecticut, and Indiana in sequence over that 8 day span. The team passed each of its first semester final exams, and is ready to ease through the Holidays with 6 straight games at Rupp before the team jumps head first into the second season, the SEC with all its trapping.

Prior to the Indiana game, I ventured into the ol If’ing game, but a win at IU, and a perfect 10-0 start during the first semester is no longer a matter of speculation, but is now the reality for this team.

• The 2009-10 Cats won the trifecta of big early season games; and
• The 10-0 start matches Coach Rupp’s 10-0 start in his first year at UK way back in 1930; and
• The 10-0 start is only one game shy of the 11-0 start of the 1992-93 Cats; and
• Given the next 4 opponents, all at Rupp, a 14-0 seems more than possible, but probable at this stage, and
  • At 14-0, this team would surpass the 12-0 start of the 1983-84 Final Four UK Team; and
  • At 14-0, this team would match the 14-0 start of the 1977-78 National Championship Team; and
  • At 14-0, this team would be one win over Louisville away from matching the 15-0 start of the great Issel-Pratt 1969-70 team; and
  • At 15-0, this team will send the pundits scrambling into the UK archives to learn about the 1965-66 Rupps Runt team that started 23-0 and the 1953-54 team that finished the season undefeated 25-0 before opting out of post season play due to NCAA intentions to prohibit UK’s best players from competing.

Well, we still must temper our enthusiasm about the future just a little, but not nearly to the same extent of tempering that we needed prior to the trip into Bloomington last week. Make no mistake, this team has already made its mark in the annuls of UK Basketball history, and it is poised to force the historians to make additional changes over the next few weeks.

First up for this 6 game home stand will be Austin Peay.

Austin Peay will bring a 7-4 record into the Saturday afternoon’s contest. Austin Peay has lost this season to Tennessee by 29 points, IUPIU by 14 points, NC State by 7 points, and Drake by 6 points. The Austin Peay’s 2 point win over Ohio University represents AP’s highest rated victim thus far this season.

Austin Peay has averaged 72.5 ppg on 69.6 possessions per game, 1.042 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.2 ppg on 69.3 possessions, 0.998 ppp. Austin Peay’s turnover rate through 11 games is 20.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 19.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Austin Peay have grabbed 33.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 30.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.3 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.115 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.5 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.922 ppp. UK’s turnover rate through 10 games is 23.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 21.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 44.8% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Austin Peay and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 12 point win for the Cats, 78-66 in a game that will be played at a pace about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for Austin Peay. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.10 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.94 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

A special note is in order regarding the absolute values of pace, efficiency and turnover rates reported here as compared to all prior similar pre-game analyses that I have presented. After the first 10 games, it has become clear that the Pomeroy definition of a possession does provide a better basis for comparison and analysis. This is a change in my position that I have adopted due to the dramatic difference in rebounding rates that have appeared for the first time this season. Future analyses will be based on the Pomeroy definition of a possession. For more detail about the change in position relative to this definition, visit the Big Blue Fans 4 UK website.